He might not be on the ballot in all 50 states, but this insurgent candidate might have an actual chance (however slim) at having an impact and shot at the White House.
Independent presidential candidate Evan McMullin’s Hail Mary of a scenario to become president begins with one incredibly unlikely outcome: that neither Hillary Clinton nor Donald Trump pick up 270 electoral college votes, at which point the race is over.
This theoretically fascinating idea has one practical implication: McMullin is not competitive in a state Clinton would otherwise be likely to win, so he has to take one (or more) from Trump. Because 270 votes is 50 percent plus 1, this implies that Trump would have to be within reach of 270 votes and a victory himself, provided McMullin wasn’t there to play spoiler.
For the past number of weeks, this has seemed a very unlikely scenario. Most predictions show Clinton with an 85-90 percent chance of winning, taking home between approximately 320 and 360 electoral college votes.
Since Evan is only likely to win Utah, a state with 6 electoral college votes, he needs both candidates to be in the 260s. This means that he needs swing states to shift between 50 and 90 votes into Trump’s likely column.
Read the rest of the article at The Resurgent.